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Spatial Simulations of Hong Kong's Marine Ecosystem: Ecological and Economic Forecasting of Marine Protected Areas With Human-Made Reefs

FCRR 2002, Vol. 10(3)

Pitcher, T., Buchary, E. and Trujillo, P. (eds). 2002. Spatial Simulations of Hong Kong's Marine Ecosystem: Ecological and Economic Forecasting of Marine Protected Areas With Human-Made Reefs.

Abstract

The Hong Kong Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) has initiated a $HK100 million Artificial Reef and Fishery Protected Area (AR/FPA) programme (Figure 1.1). The proposal builds on earlier initiatives to establish ARs in Hoi Ha Wan and Yat Chau Tong Marine Parks. The objective is to rebuild fish stocks by compensating for habitat loss and reducing fishing pressure. An extensive consultation process conducted by ERM-HK Ltd., under contract to AFCD, identified five priority deployment areas. The University of British Columbia Fisheries Centre (UBC-FC) advised on Phase I consultations with fishing communities and conducted extensive ecosystem (ECOPATH and ECOSIM) and bio-economic modelling to determine the effectiveness of different sizes of FPAs around AR complexes. The earlier results indicated that a potential for substantial gains in the value of Hong Kong fisheries resources. This study is the first application of spatial (ECOSPACE) modelling to Hong Kong and adjacent PRC inshore waters and evaluates the effectiveness of different FPA configurations in the Tap Mun/Tolo Harbour and Outer Port Shelter FPAs shown below. The overall modelling also evaluates the benefits of recent AR/FPA initiatives in banning trawling at FPAs, Marine Parks and at the newly established Marine Exclusion Zone at Chek Lap Kok. Lastly, the study assesses the implication of a 2-month trawl moratorium in adjacent PRC inshore waters.

Study Objectives:

  • Quantify the contribution of ARs plus Fisheries Protection Areas (FPAs) to Hong Kong fisheries resources; and
  • Quantify the benefits of banning trawling in recently-established ARs/MPAs initiatives and more extensively throughout Hong Kong and adjacent PRC inshore waters.

Table of Contents


Directors Foreword
T.J. Pitcher		 3
1. Introduction, Background and Study Objectives
(T. J. Pitcher, E.A. Buchary, U.R. Sumaila and N. Haggan)		 4
2. New ECOPATH Models of the Hong Kong Marine Ecosystem
(E.A. Buchary, T.J. Pitcher, W.L. Cheung and T. Hutton)		 6
2.1 Defining and parameterizing the model
6
2.2 Landing and discard database applied
7
2.3 Results
9
2.4 Revised ECOPATH model the system after 5 years closure
14
3. Revision of the Hong Kong Catch Estimates
(T.J. Pitcher)		 17
3.1 Methods applied in revising the catch estimates
17
3.2 Results
18
4. Temporal Simulation using ECOSIM
(E.A. Buchary and T.J. Pitcher)		 19
4.1 Setting up ECOSIM simulation routine
19
4.2 Feeding behavior parameters
19
4.3 Trophic ontogeny
21
4.4 Flow control assumption
21
4.5 Mediation factor
22
4.6 Fishing effort trajectory and assumptions
24
4.7 Biomasses depleted under baseline assumptions
25
5. ECOSPACE simulations for Hong Kong waters
(T.J. Pitcher and E.A. Buchary)		 27
5.1 Management area designation
27
5.2 Habitat designation and assignation of functional groups into different habitats
29
5.3 Dispersal rate, predation and foraging parameters
31
5.4 Assignation of fisheries sectors into different habitats and management areas
32
6. ECOSPACE simulations for the People's Republic of China (PRC) inshore waters
(T.J. Pitcher and E.A. Buchary)		 36
6.1 Underlying assumptions
36
6.2 Management area designation and mapping
37
6.3 Habitat and management area designation and assignation of functional groups into different habitats
38
6.4 Assignation of fisheries sectors into different habitats and management areas
40
7. Assumptions of ECOPATH, ECOSIM and ECOSPACE in this study
(E.A. Buchary and T.J. Pitcher)		 45
Part 2. Hong Kong MPAs and ARs
8. Management scenarios tested and analyzed
(E.A. Buchary and T.J. Pitcher)		 46
8.1 Ecosystem model of Hong Kong waters
46
8.2 Ecosystem model of PRC inshore waters: an extension of HK model
49
9. Economic analysis and simulations of Hong Kong fisheries
(U.R. Sumaila)		 50
9.1 Introduction
50
9.2 General outline of the approach used for the analysis
50
9.3 Valuation of changes in quantity harvested
51
9.4 Determining artificial reef deployment and fish harvesting costs
51
9.5 Weighting present and future streams of income
51
9.6 The analysis
51
   9.6.1 Project benefits
51
   9.6.2 Project costs
51
   9.6.3 Analysis and comparison of annual benefits
52
   9.6.4 Game theoretic analysis
52
10. Discussion and concluding remarks
(T.J. Pitcher, U.R. Sumaila, E.A. Buchary and N. Haggan)		 54
10.1 Main ecological results and discussion
54
   10.1.1 Comparison of reef resources across scenarios
54
   10.1.2 Comparison of indicator species across scenarios
55
10.2 Main economic results and discussion
57
   10.2.1 Potential benefits from the different scenarios analyzed
57
   10.2.2 Reef fish benefits
57
   10.2.3 Benefits from key commercial resources
59
   10.2.4 Comparison of ecological and economic outcomes
59
   10.2.5 Cooperative and non-cooperative outcomes
60
10.3 Resumption of fishing after closure in Hong Kong and PRC inshore waters
62
10.4 Management policy implications of the current ARs/FPA plans
64
10.5 Conclusions and Recommendations
69
References
70

Annexes

1. Construction of the ECOPATH Model of Hong Kong Waters in the 90s
   a. Composition of functional groups in the revised ECOPATH model
   b. Model inputs as extracted from the Ecowrite routine of ECOPATH
73
2. Results - the Ecological and Economic Simulations of the HK Model
97
3. Results from the Ecological Simulations of the PRC Model
   a. Maps of habitats and management areas
   b. Maps of biomass by resources and fishing effort from simulations
   c. Tables of simulated catch and biomass by resource and fishery sector
145
4. Economic Data and Results Pages
   a. Computed prices by functional groups
   b. Harvesting cost data by vessel type supplied by AFCD
   c. Enforcement and deployment cost computed from data supplied by AFCD
   d. Annual benefits from key commercial resources per km2
163

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